VISION OF FUTURE

- Hari Prasad Regmi

By 2050, if Nepal is still poor, it will struggle to survive between two of the most prosperous and powerful nations on earth. By 2050, Nepal's northern neighbor China is projected to be the most prosperous nation in the world and India to the south is expected to become the third most prosperous. Hence, Nepal in between faces an existential crisis and at the same time an immense opportunity. Throughout its history, Nepal has pragmatically dealt with both India and China to preserve its sovereignty. All successful nations tie their foreign policy with their own prosperity, by focusing on interdependence, multi-alliances and by responding, as opposed to reacting. On the contrary, since the last 20th century Nepal's foreign policy has been a contradiction, swinging wildly between dependency and reactionary.

Nepal's various rulers in this past century invited multiple direct or indirect foreign interferences, which worked against Nepal's prosperity. The 'economic blockade' in 2015 has served as a stark reminder of the painful consequences of decades of neglect of foreign relations and internal security. Today, Nepal remains a painfully dependent, unstable and desperately poor nation in a super-powerful neighborhood. We acknowledge the painful situation where our two giant neighbors pose a clear and present threat to our sovereignty if Nepal does not transform into a prosperous nation, along with them, in the near future. Therefore Nepal's foreign and its adjoining socio-economic policies have to be persistently guided by the reality that to survive, Nepal must become a prosperous nation by 2050.

To achieve this, Nepal should engage in a continuously evolving "interdependent" prosperity building, delicately balanced relationship with its two big neighbors and the world beyond. We propose a holistic policy called the North-South doctrine for Nepal. This doctrine envisions: i) building a perception of Nepal as at "the center of the world," ii) interdependent economic relationship between Nepal, India and China, iii) building the country as a bridge between its two neighbors, iv) protecting neighborhood to strengthen internal security and v) holistic cross-border cultural understanding. Nepal should start building a perception that it is at the center of the world because of its geo-strategic location between China and India. Why? By 2050 the global center of gravity will shift to this region, and Nepal happens to be right in the middle of all this. Through subtle diplomacy we will influence Chinese and Indians to think of our region as the center of the world. To build this perception internationally, Nepal will use "Center of the World" tag on its diplomatic channels and encourage travelers and migrants, expatriate Nepali community and students studying overseas to repeatedly brand this analogy. Inside Nepal, we persistently inject this terminology into our citizen's psyche through our leadership, education system, literature and media so that we truly believe and take advantage of our location as the "center of the world". North-South doctrine advocates Nepal as a bridge between India and China. It ensures smooth safe zone, a cushion, a transition from one super-power to another super-power that compete fiercely yet need to collaborate closely to stay as superpowers. Nepal will become a transit, a hub for both Indian and Chinese businesses. To ensure this, Nepal will set up frameworks to ensure it acts as a smooth transition for its two neighbors to do 'fair trade' with each other. Nepal will focus on highly sought after agricultural and economic needs of India and China such as herbs, crops, minerals and other strategic resources that grow or are found specifically only in geography like Nepal's. Then India and China will depend on Nepal, too.

To build an interdependent economy, mega-infrastructure financial institutions like North-South Bank will be set up with equal stake of Nepal, India and China. This bank will invest on billion + dollar projects focusing on "water" and clean energy along with "mega-transit-transport infrastructure' projects that builds China and India's prosperity through Nepal. Initially perhaps it will also focus on fast-track highways/electric rail lines (linking Nepal's China border with its Indian border in at least five strategic places such as Far-western, Mid-western, Western, Central, Eastern development regions). North South doctrine dictates that Nepal becomes an effective buffer state between China and India. Nepal has to focus on becoming a facilitator, dialogue builder between India and China to improve relations that brings these two countries closer. On matters of any international dispute between India and China, Nepal uses its foreign relations center, the 'North-South Center' to continuously foster dialogue between two great neighbors. According to this doctrine, Nepal has to be aligned with both India and China, always on a watch for anything that hampers equitable prosperity in India and China as well.

Nepal will establish disaster security zones in the Western, Central and Eastern regions where at least a year long supply of strategic security materials like food, oil, equipment, transport and medicine are stored in seismic-resistant facilities to immediately respond to disasters in Southern Tibet, Nepal, North-East and North-West states of India. Nepal will be generous and empathetic in its use of strategic resources like water for the security of its neighbors too. Nepal will maintain an open but monitored border (monitor movement of vehicles and people through smart identification systems/ technology) ensuring hassle-free trade and movement for both India and China. Nepal will share vital neighborhood security information with its neighbors to help convince India and China. It will practice the policy of "peacekeeping through peacekeepers". It ensures its security forces transition to UN peacekeeping forces committing majority of its total force for international peacekeeping duties by 2030.

The North-South doctrine will promote Nepal as a 'zone of spirituality' by adopting a policy of "empathy through unity" to influence its immediate neighbors. Nepal can enhance spiritual tourism as a strategy to make Indians and Chinese empathize with the Nepali way of life by perfecting our "guests as gods" attitude. Nepal will build itself as a spiritual resource center for over a billion Hindus and nearly a half a billion Buddhists. To enhance deeper bonding between its intellectuals, a North-South University in Nepal along with Satellite centers in China and India will focus teaching interdisciplinary studies, building creativity around the working together of three distinct cultures and its myriads sub-cultures and languages. Meaningful implementation of any national policy is dependent on ethical delivery by its leaders. The North-South doctrine will evolve according to the challenges of the future but will remain focused on building a prosperous Nepal and a prosperous neighborhood. We envision all foreign relations and socio-economic policies of Nepal and its political parties in the next few decades to go through a "one door" policy which all political forces, bureaucracy and planners shall follow. The "North-South" doctrine is a start  the writer recommends for Nepal.